Dana White's Contender Series · Season 10
Contender Series Simulation
Our Monte Carlo engine, pointed at prospects who need a finish to get signed.
Read the method and round numbers first — that is where the research pays.
How this works, and what it can't tell you
The same engine that runs every UFC matchup on this site, with a Contender Series layer
on top. A finish gets you signed 86% of the time here against 54% for a decision. These
men chase it, and they chase it early: round one runs 28% hotter than the fight
math alone predicts. That urgency is fitted to 416 completed Contender Series bouts,
not assumed — as is the method mix of every division.
What it can't tell you is who wins, with much confidence. Regional prospects have no
per-fight statistics anywhere — we know what these men have done, not how they
did it — so neither corner has defensive data and the win split stays honest by staying
close. Where a fight is genuinely a coin-flip this page says so instead of inventing a
favourite.
4 bouts simulated
≈2.0 finishes expected
≈1.1 inside round one
2 thin-data
dwcs-sim-0.1.0
Next card · Week 8
Igor Cavalcanti vs Oscar Ravello
WK8 · Middleweight
Oscar Ravello
49.7%near coin-flip
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
12%
Decision
54%
Ends in
R1 23%
R2 13%
R3 64%
inside 2 rds 36%
What drove this
Igor Cavalcanti record 13-2 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Infinity Fight Team (grade U)
Oscar Ravello record 13-3 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Sniper Gym (Peru) (grade U)
Ian Escuza vs Luca Borando
WK8 · Featherweight thin data
Ian Escuza
50.1%near coin-flip
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
14%
Decision
50%
Ends in
R1 25%
R2 14%
R3 61%
inside 2 rds 39%
What drove this
Ian Escuza record 7-0 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Pitbull Martial Arts Center (grade B)
Luca Borando no documented method split — divisional prior; camp Aurora MMA (grade U)
Zaurbek Sabanov vs Adama Diop
WK8 · Heavyweight
Zaurbek Sabanov
60.4%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
5%
Decision
39%
Ends in
R1 32%
R2 17%
R3 51%
inside 2 rds 49%
What drove this
Zaurbek Sabanov record 5-0 (80% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: wrestle-leaning; camp Alania Fighting Team (grade B)
Adama Diop record 6-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: wrestle-leaning; camp Mantas MMA (grade U)
Ilias Bulaid vs Erick Visconde
WK8 · Featherweight thin data
Ilias Bulaid
57.1%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
13%
Decision
48%
Ends in
R1 26%
R2 15%
R3 59%
inside 2 rds 41%
What drove this
Ilias Bulaid record 9-0 (56% KO / 11% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp SB Gym (grade B)
Erick Visconde no documented method split — divisional prior; style read: strike-leaning; camp California MMA (grade U)
