Dana White's Contender Series · Season 10
Contender Series Simulation
Our Monte Carlo engine, pointed at prospects who need a finish to get signed.
Read the method and round numbers first — that is where the research pays.
How this works, and what it can't tell you
The same engine that runs every UFC matchup on this site, with a Contender Series layer
on top. A finish gets you signed 86% of the time here against 54% for a decision. These
men chase it, and they chase it early: round one runs 28% hotter than the fight
math alone predicts. That urgency is fitted to 416 completed Contender Series bouts,
not assumed — as is the method mix of every division.
What it can't tell you is who wins, with much confidence. Regional prospects have no
per-fight statistics anywhere — we know what these men have done, not how they
did it — so neither corner has defensive data and the win split stays honest by staying
close. Where a fight is genuinely a coin-flip this page says so instead of inventing a
favourite.
5 bouts simulated
≈2.6 finishes expected
≈1.4 inside round one
dwcs-sim-0.1.0
Next card · Week 1
Anthony Wint vs Matt Adams
WK1 · Heavyweight
Anthony Wint
59.3%
KO/TKO
64%
Submission
9%
Decision
27%
Ends in
R1 42%
R2 19%
R3 38%
inside 2 rds 62%
What drove this
Anthony Wint record 6-0 (67% KO / 17% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Kill Cliff FC (grade A)
Matt Adams record 6-2 (83% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: wrestle-leaning; camp Raw MMA (grade C)
Fabrizio Escarrega vs Abe Alsaghir
WK1 · Lightweight
Fabrizio Escarrega
52.4%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
13%
Decision
57%
Ends in
R1 21%
R2 12%
R3 67%
inside 2 rds 33%
What drove this
Fabrizio Escarrega record 9-1 (78% KO / 11% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Victory Fight Club (Ensenada) (grade C)
Abe Alsaghir record 8-0 (38% KO / 50% sub of wins); style read: bjj-leaning; camp Porrada Training Center (grade C)
Bilal Hasan vs Mridul Saikia
WK1 · Flyweight
Bilal Hasan
54.0%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
12%
Decision
69%
Ends in
R1 13%
R2 9%
R3 78%
inside 2 rds 22%
What drove this
Bilal Hasan record 8-0 (75% KO / 12% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Charlie's Combat Club (grade B)
Mridul Saikia record 9-1 (44% KO / 56% sub of wins); style read: bjj-leaning; camp Bidang MMA & Fitness (grade C)
Ananias Mulumba vs Tom Pagliarulo
WK1 · Featherweight
Ananias Mulumba
50.7%near coin-flip
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
20%
Decision
46%
Ends in
R1 28%
R2 15%
R3 56%
inside 2 rds 44%
What drove this
Ananias Mulumba record 10-3 (50% KO / 50% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Elite Training Center (DRC) (grade U)
Tom Pagliarulo record 10-2 (80% KO / 10% sub of wins); style read: bjj-leaning; camp New England Cartel (grade A)
Jonathan Kunneman vs Joseph Kropschot
WK1 · Middleweight
Jonathan Kunneman
60.6%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
32%
Decision
34%
Ends in
R1 36%
R2 19%
R3 46%
inside 2 rds 54%
Submission rule: submission path live: 70% of wins by submission vs has been submitted before; but is himself a credentialled grappler
What drove this
Jonathan Kunneman record 10-0 (30% KO / 70% sub of wins); style read: wrestle-leaning; camp Jackson-Wink MMA (grade A)
Joseph Kropschot record 8-3 (25% KO / 75% sub of wins); style read: bjj-leaning; camp Team Santos Jiu Jitsu (grade B)
