Contender Series · Season 10

Round-1 KO Board

Which bouts are live for a first-round knockout. Built from our own 425 completed DWCS bouts — where round-1 KOs land 24.8% of the time overall, but swing from 51% at heavyweight to 8% at flyweight.

This is a proposed model, not the fitted engine. It does not feed p_sim and has not been validated out-of-sample — week 1 is its first live test. Percentages are the chance the fight produces a round-1 KO; per-fighter numbers split that between the two men.
Model run 2026-08-10 05:56 9.8 R1 KOs expected across 37 bouts 27 bouts thin on data
Next card — week 1 · 2026-08-11
Anthony Wint vs Matt Adams
WK1 · Heavyweight · base 51% +12
63%
R1 KO
Matt Adams 32% R1 · 55% KO any rd
Anthony Wint 31% R1 · 54% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 63% / 63% base
Ends inside the distance 87%
Matt Adams: KO rate 83% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageAnthony Wint: KO rate 67% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent has 1 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Abe Alsaghir vs Fabrizio Escarrega
WK1 · Lightweight · base 28% +2
30%
R1 KO
Fabrizio Escarrega 18% R1 · 30% KO any rd
Abe Alsaghir 13% R1 · 22% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 36% / 36% base
Ends inside the distance 63%
Fabrizio Escarrega: KO rate 78% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageAbe Alsaghir: KO rate 38% (mid band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Ananias Mulumba vs Tom Pagliarulo
WK1 · Featherweight · base 19% +1
20%
R1 KO
Tom Pagliarulo 12% R1 · 20% KO any rd
Ananias Mulumba 8% R1 · 14% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 24% / 24% base
Ends inside the distance 62%
Tom Pagliarulo: KO rate 80% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent has 1 KO loss(es) (unscored)Ananias Mulumba: KO rate 50% (mid band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Jonathan Kunneman vs Joseph Kropschot
WK1 · Middleweight · base 28% -9
19%
R1 KO
Jonathan Kunneman 13% R1 · 22% KO any rd
Joseph Kropschot 6% R1 · 11% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 49% / 49% base
Ends inside the distance 63%
Jonathan Kunneman: KO rate 30% (mid band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent has 2 KO loss(es) (unscored)Joseph Kropschot: KO rate 25% (low band) · no prior R1 KOs
Bilal Hasan vs Mridul Saikia
WK1 · Flyweight · base 8% +1
9%
R1 KO
Bilal Hasan 5% R1 · 9% KO any rd
Mridul Saikia 4% R1 · 6% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 17% / 17% base
Ends inside the distance 43%
Bilal Hasan: KO rate 75% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent has 1 KO loss(es) (unscored)Mridul Saikia: KO rate 44% (mid band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Every bout, ranked by R1-KO chance
Anthony Wint vs Matt Adams
WK1 · Heavyweight · base 51% +12
63%
R1 KO
Matt Adams 32% R1 · 55% KO any rd
Anthony Wint 31% R1 · 54% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 63% / 63% base
Ends inside the distance 87%
Matt Adams: KO rate 83% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageAnthony Wint: KO rate 67% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent has 1 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Guilherme Uriel vs Mario Piazzon
WK3 · Heavyweight · base 51% +5
56%
R1 KO
Mario Piazzon 30% R1 · 51% KO any rd
Guilherme Uriel 26% R1 · 46% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 71% / 63% base
Ends inside the distance 86%
Mario Piazzon: KO rate 70% (top band) [x0.8 weak-opposition haircut] · 6 prior R1 KOs · opponent has 2 KO loss(es) (unscored)Guilherme Uriel: KO rate 57% (mid band) · 4 prior R1 KOs · opponent has 1 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Adama Diop vs Zaurbek Sabanov
WK8 · Heavyweight · base 51% +4 thin data
55%
R1 KO
Zaurbek Sabanov 29% R1 · 50% KO any rd
Adama Diop 26% R1 · 44% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 63% / 63% base
Ends inside the distance 86%
Zaurbek Sabanov: KO rate 80% (top band) · 1 prior R1 KO(s)Adama Diop: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent never finished (unscored)
Alik Lorenz vs Mahamed Aly
WK2 · Light Heavyweight · base 42% +6 thin data
48%
R1 KO
Alik Lorenz 26% R1 · 46% KO any rd
Mahamed Aly 21% R1 · 37% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 50% / 50% base
Ends inside the distance 83%
Alik Lorenz: KO rate 71% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent has 1 KO loss(es) (unscored)Mahamed Aly: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent has 1 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Ivan Gnizditskiy vs Nell Ariano
WK9 · Light Heavyweight · base 42% +5 thin data
47%
R1 KO
Nell Ariano 26% R1 · 44% KO any rd
Ivan Gnizditskiy 21% R1 · 37% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 50% / 50% base
Ends inside the distance 83%
Nell Ariano: KO rate 67% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent never finished (unscored)Ivan Gnizditskiy: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent never finished (unscored)
Arlind Berisha vs Quentin Pasley
WK5 · Light Heavyweight · base 42% +3 thin data
45%
R1 KO
Quentin Pasley 24% R1 · 42% KO any rd
Arlind Berisha 21% R1 · 37% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 50% / 50% base
Ends inside the distance 83%
Quentin Pasley: KO rate 100% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageArlind Berisha: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Damian Piwowarczyk vs Emilio Quissua
WK7 · Light Heavyweight · base 42% -3 thin data
39%
R1 KO
Emilio Quissua 20% R1 · 35% KO any rd
Damian Piwowarczyk 19% R1 · 33% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 50% / 50% base
Ends inside the distance 80%
Emilio Quissua: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · 2 prior R1 KO(s)Damian Piwowarczyk: KO rate 55% (mid band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent never finished (unscored)
Douglas Henrique Rodrigues vs Trent Miller
WK2 · Middleweight · base 28% +7
35%
R1 KO
Trent Miller 18% R1 · 30% KO any rd
Douglas Henrique Rodrigues 17% R1 · 29% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 49% / 49% base
Ends inside the distance 73%
Trent Miller: KO rate 67% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageDouglas Henrique Rodrigues: KO rate 67% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent has 1 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Abe Alsaghir vs Fabrizio Escarrega
WK1 · Lightweight · base 28% +2
30%
R1 KO
Fabrizio Escarrega 18% R1 · 30% KO any rd
Abe Alsaghir 13% R1 · 22% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 36% / 36% base
Ends inside the distance 63%
Fabrizio Escarrega: KO rate 78% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageAbe Alsaghir: KO rate 38% (mid band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Adam Livingston vs Hunter Smith
WK4 · Lightweight · base 28% +2
30%
R1 KO
Hunter Smith 18% R1 · 30% KO any rd
Adam Livingston 13% R1 · 22% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 36% / 36% base
Ends inside the distance 63%
Hunter Smith: KO rate 75% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageAdam Livingston: KO rate 57% (mid band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Liam McCraken vs Sylvestre Sanchez
WK4 · Lightweight · base 28% 0 thin data
28%
R1 KO
Liam McCraken 14% R1 · 24% KO any rd
Sylvestre Sanchez 14% R1 · 24% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 36% / 36% base
Ends inside the distance 62%
Liam McCraken: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageSylvestre Sanchez: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Callum Connor vs Piero Guaylupo
WK7 · Lightweight · base 28% 0 thin data
28%
R1 KO
Callum Connor 14% R1 · 24% KO any rd
Piero Guaylupo 14% R1 · 24% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 36% / 36% base
Ends inside the distance 62%
Callum Connor: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averagePiero Guaylupo: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Carlos Petruzzella vs Nick Galanti
WK3 · Middleweight · base 28% 0 thin data
28%
R1 KO
Carlos Petruzzella 14% R1 · 24% KO any rd
Nick Galanti 14% R1 · 24% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 49% / 49% base
Ends inside the distance 71%
Carlos Petruzzella: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageNick Galanti: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Brandon Holmes vs Modestino Rodrigues
WK4 · Middleweight · base 28% 0 thin data
28%
R1 KO
Brandon Holmes 14% R1 · 24% KO any rd
Modestino Rodrigues 14% R1 · 24% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 49% / 49% base
Ends inside the distance 71%
Brandon Holmes: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageModestino Rodrigues: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent has 1 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Juan Andres Cabrera vs Martin Koźak
WK5 · Middleweight · base 28% 0 thin data
28%
R1 KO
Juan Andres Cabrera 14% R1 · 24% KO any rd
Martin Koźak 14% R1 · 24% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 49% / 49% base
Ends inside the distance 71%
Juan Andres Cabrera: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageMartin Koźak: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Hugo Guillon vs Luis Hernandez
WK6 · Middleweight · base 28% 0 thin data
28%
R1 KO
Hugo Guillon 14% R1 · 24% KO any rd
Luis Hernandez 14% R1 · 24% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 49% / 49% base
Ends inside the distance 71%
Hugo Guillon: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageLuis Hernandez: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Igor Cavalcanti vs Oscar Ravello
WK8 · Middleweight · base 28% 0 thin data
28%
R1 KO
Igor Cavalcanti 14% R1 · 24% KO any rd
Oscar Ravello 14% R1 · 24% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 49% / 49% base
Ends inside the distance 71%
Igor Cavalcanti: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageOscar Ravello: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Kaik Brito vs Namo Fazil
WK2 · Welterweight · base 23% +2
25%
R1 KO
Kaik Brito 15% R1 · 27% KO any rd
Namo Fazil 10% R1 · 17% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 34% / 33% base
Ends inside the distance 70%
Kaik Brito: KO rate 84% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent never finished (unscored)Namo Fazil: KO rate 40% (mid band) · 1 prior R1 KO(s) · opponent has 2 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Alexis Miranda vs Ronald Humphrey
WK3 · Welterweight · base 23% +2 thin data
25%
R1 KO
Ronald Humphrey 14% R1 · 23% KO any rd
Alexis Miranda 12% R1 · 20% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 33% / 33% base
Ends inside the distance 70%
Ronald Humphrey: KO rate 100% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageAlexis Miranda: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Cristian Pérez vs Logan Paxton
WK2 · Lightweight · base 28% -4 thin data
24%
R1 KO
Cristian Pérez 13% R1 · 22% KO any rd
Logan Paxton 12% R1 · 21% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 36% / 36% base
Ends inside the distance 59%
Cristian Pérez: KO rate 36% (mid band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageLogan Paxton: KO rate unknown -> assumed average [x0.85 weak-opposition haircut] · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent has 1 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Adam Darby vs Patrick Rivera
WK4 · Welterweight · base 23% 0 thin data
23%
R1 KO
Adam Darby 12% R1 · 20% KO any rd
Patrick Rivera 12% R1 · 20% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 33% / 33% base
Ends inside the distance 69%
Adam Darby: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averagePatrick Rivera: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Mayton Perea vs Zevan Hunt
WK6 · Welterweight · base 23% 0 thin data
23%
R1 KO
Mayton Perea 12% R1 · 20% KO any rd
Zevan Hunt 12% R1 · 20% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 33% / 33% base
Ends inside the distance 69%
Mayton Perea: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageZevan Hunt: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Alvi Dasuyev vs Jaden Ortega
WK7 · Welterweight · base 23% 0 thin data
23%
R1 KO
Alvi Dasuyev 12% R1 · 20% KO any rd
Jaden Ortega 12% R1 · 20% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 33% / 33% base
Ends inside the distance 69%
Alvi Dasuyev: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageJaden Ortega: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Ananias Mulumba vs Tom Pagliarulo
WK1 · Featherweight · base 19% +1
20%
R1 KO
Tom Pagliarulo 12% R1 · 20% KO any rd
Ananias Mulumba 8% R1 · 14% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 24% / 24% base
Ends inside the distance 62%
Tom Pagliarulo: KO rate 80% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent has 1 KO loss(es) (unscored)Ananias Mulumba: KO rate 50% (mid band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Jonathan Kunneman vs Joseph Kropschot
WK1 · Middleweight · base 28% -9
19%
R1 KO
Jonathan Kunneman 13% R1 · 22% KO any rd
Joseph Kropschot 6% R1 · 11% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 49% / 49% base
Ends inside the distance 63%
Jonathan Kunneman: KO rate 30% (mid band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent has 2 KO loss(es) (unscored)Joseph Kropschot: KO rate 25% (low band) · no prior R1 KOs
Mateus Soares vs Ryuho Miyaguchi
WK9 · Bantamweight · base 19% 0 thin data
19%
R1 KO
Mateus Soares 9% R1 · 16% KO any rd
Ryuho Miyaguchi 9% R1 · 16% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 25% / 25% base
Ends inside the distance 46%
Mateus Soares: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageRyuho Miyaguchi: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Antônio Monteiro vs Tyshawn Williams
WK6 · Featherweight · base 19% 0 thin data
19%
R1 KO
Antônio Monteiro 9% R1 · 16% KO any rd
Tyshawn Williams 9% R1 · 16% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 24% / 24% base
Ends inside the distance 61%
Antônio Monteiro: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageTyshawn Williams: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Ian Escuza vs Luca Borando
WK8 · Featherweight · base 19% 0 thin data
19%
R1 KO
Ian Escuza 9% R1 · 16% KO any rd
Luca Borando 9% R1 · 16% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 24% / 24% base
Ends inside the distance 61%
Ian Escuza: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageLuca Borando: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Gary Balletto Jr. vs Sean Clancy Jr.
WK3 · Welterweight · base 23% -5
18%
R1 KO
Gary Balletto Jr. 10% R1 · 18% KO any rd
Sean Clancy Jr. 8% R1 · 14% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 28% / 33% base
Ends inside the distance 64%
Gary Balletto Jr.: KO rate 36% (mid band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent never finished (unscored)Sean Clancy Jr.: KO rate 50% (mid band) · no prior R1 KOs · opponent has 2 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Erick Visconde vs Ilias Bulaid
WK8 · Featherweight · base 19% -1 thin data
18%
R1 KO
Erick Visconde 9% R1 · 16% KO any rd
Ilias Bulaid 8% R1 · 15% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 24% / 24% base
Ends inside the distance 60%
Erick Visconde: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageIlias Bulaid: KO rate 56% (mid band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Roman Puga vs Taner Trembley
WK2 · Featherweight · base 19% -3 thin data
16%
R1 KO
Roman Puga 9% R1 · 16% KO any rd
Taner Trembley 6% R1 · 11% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 24% / 24% base
Ends inside the distance 58%
Roman Puga: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageTaner Trembley: KO rate 14% (low band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Bilal Hasan vs Mridul Saikia
WK1 · Flyweight · base 8% +1
9%
R1 KO
Bilal Hasan 5% R1 · 9% KO any rd
Mridul Saikia 4% R1 · 6% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 17% / 17% base
Ends inside the distance 43%
Bilal Hasan: KO rate 75% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent has 1 KO loss(es) (unscored)Mridul Saikia: KO rate 44% (mid band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Alex Apodaca vs Bella Mir
WK3 · Women's Bantamweight · base 10% -1 thin data
9%
R1 KO
Bella Mir 5% R1 · 9% KO any rd
Alex Apodaca 4% R1 · 7% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 18% / 18% base
Ends inside the distance 38%
Bella Mir: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageAlex Apodaca: KO rate 0% (low band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Colton Loud vs Frank da Silva Castro
WK5 · Flyweight · base 8% 0 thin data
8%
R1 KO
Colton Loud 4% R1 · 7% KO any rd
Frank da Silva Castro 4% R1 · 7% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 17% / 17% base
Ends inside the distance 42%
Colton Loud: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageFrank da Silva Castro: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Marcos Degli vs Paris Moran
WK7 · Flyweight · base 8% 0 thin data
8%
R1 KO
Marcos Degli 4% R1 · 7% KO any rd
Paris Moran 4% R1 · 7% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 17% / 17% base
Ends inside the distance 42%
Marcos Degli: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageParis Moran: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Alexander Chavez vs Roque Conceição Moreira Jr.
WK9 · Flyweight · base 8% 0 thin data
8%
R1 KO
Alexander Chavez 4% R1 · 7% KO any rd
Roque Conceição Moreira Jr. 4% R1 · 7% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 17% / 17% base
Ends inside the distance 42%
Alexander Chavez: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageRoque Conceição Moreira Jr.: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Camila Reynoso vs Hailai Wushamo
WK6 · Women's Strawweight · base 5% 0 thin data
5%
R1 KO
Camila Reynoso 2% R1 · 4% KO any rd
Hailai Wushamo 2% R1 · 4% KO any rd
Ends in round 1 (any method · under 1.5) 10% / 10% base
Ends inside the distance 30%
Camila Reynoso: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed averageHailai Wushamo: KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average