Dana White's Contender Series · Season 10
Contender Series Simulation
Our Monte Carlo engine, pointed at prospects who need a finish to get signed.
Read the method and round numbers first — that is where the research pays.
How this works, and what it can't tell you
The same engine that runs every UFC matchup on this site, with a Contender Series layer
on top. A finish gets you signed 86% of the time here against 54% for a decision. These
men chase it, and they chase it early: round one runs 28% hotter than the fight
math alone predicts. That urgency is fitted to 416 completed Contender Series bouts,
not assumed — as is the method mix of every division.
What it can't tell you is who wins, with much confidence. Regional prospects have no
per-fight statistics anywhere — we know what these men have done, not how they
did it — so neither corner has defensive data and the win split stays honest by staying
close. Where a fight is genuinely a coin-flip this page says so instead of inventing a
favourite.
5 bouts simulated
≈2.7 finishes expected
≈1.4 inside round one
dwcs-sim-0.1.0
Next card · Week 2
Namo Fazil vs Kaik Brito
WK2 · Welterweight
Kaik Brito
50.1%near coin-flip
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
8%
Decision
47%
Ends in
R1 27%
R2 15%
R3 57%
inside 2 rds 43%
What drove this
Namo Fazil record 10-1 (40% KO / 40% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Tiger Muay Thai (grade A)
Kaik Brito record 19-6 (84% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Black Thai Team (grade B)
Douglas Henrique Rodrigues vs Trent Miller
WK2 · Middleweight
Trent Miller
51.2%near coin-flip
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
11%
Decision
40%
Ends in
R1 33%
R2 16%
R3 51%
inside 2 rds 49%
What drove this
Douglas Henrique Rodrigues record 6-1 (67% KO / 17% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Fight Master MMA (Londrina) (grade C)
Trent Miller record 9-3 (67% KO / 11% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Xtreme Couture (grade A)
Logan Paxton vs Cristian Pérez
WK2 · Lightweight
Cristian Pérez
52.6%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
14%
Decision
53%
Ends in
R1 23%
R2 13%
R3 64%
inside 2 rds 36%
What drove this
Logan Paxton record 10-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Havoc MMA (Denver) (grade C)
Cristian Pérez record 14-2 (36% KO / 43% sub of wins); camp The GOAT Shed (grade B)
Mahamed Aly vs Alik Lorenz
WK2 · Light Heavyweight
Alik Lorenz
62.4%
KO/TKO
66%
Submission
6%
Decision
27%
Ends in
R1 42%
R2 19%
R3 39%
inside 2 rds 61%
What drove this
Mahamed Aly record 5-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: bjj-leaning; camp Team Lloyd Irvin (grade B)
Alik Lorenz record 7-2 (71% KO / 14% sub of wins); style read: wrestle-leaning; camp The MMA Lab (grade A)
Taner Trembley vs Roman Puga
WK2 · Featherweight
Roman Puga
49.9%near coin-flip
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
14%
Decision
58%
Ends in
R1 19%
R2 12%
R3 68%
inside 2 rds 32%
What drove this
Taner Trembley record 7-0 (14% KO / 71% sub of wins); style read: wrestle-leaning; camp Start BJJ (grade C)
Roman Puga record 5-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp MMAFC (California) (grade C)
