Dana White's Contender Series · Season 10
Contender Series Simulation
Our Monte Carlo engine, pointed at prospects who need a finish to get signed.
Read the method and round numbers first — that is where the research pays.
How this works, and what it can't tell you
The same engine that runs every UFC matchup on this site, with a Contender Series layer
on top. A finish gets you signed 86% of the time here against 54% for a decision. These
men chase it, and they chase it early: round one runs 28% hotter than the fight
math alone predicts. That urgency is fitted to 416 completed Contender Series bouts,
not assumed — as is the method mix of every division.
What it can't tell you is who wins, with much confidence. Regional prospects have no
per-fight statistics anywhere — we know what these men have done, not how they
did it — so neither corner has defensive data and the win split stays honest by staying
close. Where a fight is genuinely a coin-flip this page says so instead of inventing a
favourite.
4 bouts simulated
≈1.6 finishes expected
≈0.8 inside round one
3 thin-data
dwcs-sim-0.1.0
Next card · Week 6
Camila Reynoso vs Hailai Wushamo
WK6 · Women's Strawweight thin data
Camila Reynoso
51.3%near coin-flip
KO/TKO
7%
Submission
10%
Decision
81%
Ends in
R1 8%
R2 5%
R3 87%
inside 2 rds 13%
What drove this
Camila Reynoso record 9-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Centro Deportivo ADM (grade U)
Hailai Wushamo no documented method split — divisional prior; camp Yi Fight Training Center (grade U)
Luis Hernandez vs Hugo Guillon
WK6 · Middleweight thin data
Hugo Guillon
49.9%near coin-flip
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
18%
Decision
42%
Ends in
R1 30%
R2 16%
R3 54%
inside 2 rds 46%
What drove this
Luis Hernandez no documented method split — divisional prior; camp Freedom Fighters (grade U)
Hugo Guillon record 7-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Ghost Arena (grade U)
Mayton Perea vs Zevan Hunt
WK6 · Welterweight thin data
Mayton Perea
50.5%near coin-flip
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
10%
Decision
52%
Ends in
R1 24%
R2 13%
R3 62%
inside 2 rds 38%
What drove this
Mayton Perea record 8-3 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp DC Team Machala (grade U)
Zevan Hunt no documented method split — divisional prior; camp American Elite MMA (grade U)
Tyshawn Williams vs Antônio Monteiro
WK6 · Featherweight
Tyshawn Williams
49.6%near coin-flip
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
8%
Decision
61%
Ends in
R1 18%
R2 12%
R3 70%
inside 2 rds 30%
What drove this
Tyshawn Williams record 8-0 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Xtreme Couture (grade A)
Antônio Monteiro record 18-5 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Nova União (grade A)
