Dana White's Contender Series · Season 10

Contender Series Simulation

Our Monte Carlo engine, pointed at prospects who need a finish to get signed. Read the method and round numbers first — that is where the research pays.

How this works, and what it can't tell you

The same engine that runs every UFC matchup on this site, with a Contender Series layer on top. A finish gets you signed 86% of the time here against 54% for a decision. These men chase it, and they chase it early: round one runs 28% hotter than the fight math alone predicts. That urgency is fitted to 416 completed Contender Series bouts, not assumed — as is the method mix of every division.

What it can't tell you is who wins, with much confidence. Regional prospects have no per-fight statistics anywhere — we know what these men have done, not how they did it — so neither corner has defensive data and the win split stays honest by staying close. Where a fight is genuinely a coin-flip this page says so instead of inventing a favourite.

36 bouts simulated ≈17.7 finishes expected ≈9.3 inside round one 8 thin-data dwcs-sim-0.1.0

WK1 WK2 WK3 WK4 WK5 WK6 WK7 WK8 WK9 All

Next card · Week 1

Anthony Wint vs Matt Adams

WK1 · Heavyweight

72%

ends early

Anthony Wint 59.3%

KO/TKO 64%

Submission 9%

Decision 27%

Ends in R1 42% R2 19% R3 38% inside 2 rds 62%

What drove this

Anthony Wint record 6-0 (67% KO / 17% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Kill Cliff FC (grade A)

Matt Adams record 6-2 (83% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: wrestle-leaning; camp Raw MMA (grade C)

Fabrizio Escarrega vs Abe Alsaghir

WK1 · Lightweight

42%

ends early

Fabrizio Escarrega 52.4%

KO/TKO 29%

Submission 13%

Decision 57%

Ends in R1 21% R2 12% R3 67% inside 2 rds 33%

What drove this

Fabrizio Escarrega record 9-1 (78% KO / 11% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Victory Fight Club (Ensenada) (grade C)

Abe Alsaghir record 8-0 (38% KO / 50% sub of wins); style read: bjj-leaning; camp Porrada Training Center (grade C)

Bilal Hasan vs Mridul Saikia

WK1 · Flyweight

29%

ends early

Bilal Hasan 54.0%

KO/TKO 17%

Submission 12%

Decision 69%

Ends in R1 13% R2 9% R3 78% inside 2 rds 22%

What drove this

Bilal Hasan record 8-0 (75% KO / 12% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Charlie's Combat Club (grade B)

Mridul Saikia record 9-1 (44% KO / 56% sub of wins); style read: bjj-leaning; camp Bidang MMA & Fitness (grade C)

Ananias Mulumba vs Tom Pagliarulo

WK1 · Featherweight

54%

ends early

Ananias Mulumba 50.7%near coin-flip

KO/TKO 33%

Submission 20%

Decision 46%

Ends in R1 28% R2 15% R3 56% inside 2 rds 44%

What drove this

Ananias Mulumba record 10-3 (50% KO / 50% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Elite Training Center (DRC) (grade U)

Tom Pagliarulo record 10-2 (80% KO / 10% sub of wins); style read: bjj-leaning; camp New England Cartel (grade A)

Jonathan Kunneman vs Joseph Kropschot

WK1 · Middleweight

65%

ends early

Jonathan Kunneman 60.6%

KO/TKO 34%

Submission 32%

Decision 34%

Ends in R1 36% R2 19% R3 46% inside 2 rds 54%

Submission rule: submission path live: 70% of wins by submission vs has been submitted before; but is himself a credentialled grappler

What drove this

Jonathan Kunneman record 10-0 (30% KO / 70% sub of wins); style read: wrestle-leaning; camp Jackson-Wink MMA (grade A)

Joseph Kropschot record 8-3 (25% KO / 75% sub of wins); style read: bjj-leaning; camp Team Santos Jiu Jitsu (grade B)

Rest of the season

Namo Fazil vs Kaik Brito

WK2 · Welterweight

52%

ends early

Kaik Brito 50.1%near coin-flip

KO/TKO 44%

Submission 8%

Decision 47%

Ends in R1 27% R2 15% R3 57% inside 2 rds 43%

What drove this

Namo Fazil record 10-1 (40% KO / 40% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Tiger Muay Thai (grade A)

Kaik Brito record 19-6 (84% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Black Thai Team (grade B)

Douglas Henrique Rodrigues vs Trent Miller

WK2 · Middleweight

60%

ends early

Trent Miller 51.2%near coin-flip

KO/TKO 49%

Submission 11%

Decision 40%

Ends in R1 33% R2 16% R3 51% inside 2 rds 49%

What drove this

Douglas Henrique Rodrigues record 6-1 (67% KO / 17% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Fight Master MMA (Londrina) (grade C)

Trent Miller record 9-3 (67% KO / 11% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Xtreme Couture (grade A)

Logan Paxton vs Cristian Pérez

WK2 · Lightweight

46%

ends early

Cristian Pérez 52.6%

KO/TKO 31%

Submission 14%

Decision 53%

Ends in R1 23% R2 13% R3 64% inside 2 rds 36%

What drove this

Logan Paxton record 10-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Havoc MMA (Denver) (grade C)

Cristian Pérez record 14-2 (36% KO / 43% sub of wins); camp The GOAT Shed (grade B)

Mahamed Aly vs Alik Lorenz

WK2 · Light Heavyweight

73%

ends early

Alik Lorenz 62.4%

KO/TKO 66%

Submission 6%

Decision 27%

Ends in R1 42% R2 19% R3 39% inside 2 rds 61%

What drove this

Mahamed Aly record 5-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: bjj-leaning; camp Team Lloyd Irvin (grade B)

Alik Lorenz record 7-2 (71% KO / 14% sub of wins); style read: wrestle-leaning; camp The MMA Lab (grade A)

Taner Trembley vs Roman Puga

WK2 · Featherweight

40%

ends early

Roman Puga 49.9%near coin-flip

KO/TKO 27%

Submission 14%

Decision 58%

Ends in R1 19% R2 12% R3 68% inside 2 rds 32%

What drove this

Taner Trembley record 7-0 (14% KO / 71% sub of wins); style read: wrestle-leaning; camp Start BJJ (grade C)

Roman Puga record 5-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp MMAFC (California) (grade C)

Bella Mir vs Alex Apodaca

WK3 · Women's Bantamweight

26%

ends early

Alex Apodaca 52.0%near coin-flip

KO/TKO 17%

Submission 9%

Decision 73%

Ends in R1 12% R2 8% R3 80% inside 2 rds 20%

What drove this

Bella Mir record 4-0 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: wrestle-leaning; camp Syndicate MMA (grade A)

Alex Apodaca record 3-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: wrestle-leaning; camp FactoryX Muay Thai (grade A)

Sean Clancy Jr. vs Gary Balletto Jr.

WK3 · Welterweight

57%

ends early

Sean Clancy Jr. 54.4%

KO/TKO 48%

Submission 10%

Decision 42%

Ends in R1 31% R2 17% R3 52% inside 2 rds 48%

What drove this

Sean Clancy Jr. record 8-0 (50% KO / 38% sub of wins); camp Higher Level Martial Arts (grade B)

Gary Balletto Jr. record 11-3 (36% KO / 64% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Tri-Force MMA (grade B)

Alexis Miranda vs Ronald Humphrey

WK3 · Middleweight

54%

ends early

Ronald Humphrey 60.7%

KO/TKO 41%

Submission 12%

Decision 45%

Ends in R1 28% R2 15% R3 56% inside 2 rds 44%

What drove this

Alexis Miranda record 9-2 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Entram Gym (grade A)

Ronald Humphrey record 4-0 (100% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp American Top Team (Sandy Springs) (grade A)

Guilherme Uriel vs Mario Piazzon

WK3 · Heavyweight

78%

ends early

Mario Piazzon 54.4%

KO/TKO 73%

Submission 6%

Decision 21%

Ends in R1 45% R2 22% R3 33% inside 2 rds 67%

What drove this

Guilherme Uriel record 7-2 (57% KO / 43% sub of wins); camp Evolution Combat MMA (grade U)

Mario Piazzon record 10-1 (70% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Galpão da Luta (grade U)

Carlos Petruzzella vs Nick Galanti

WK3 · Middleweight

46%

ends early

Carlos Petruzzella 50.4%near coin-flip

KO/TKO 34%

Submission 12%

Decision 53%

Ends in R1 23% R2 14% R3 63% inside 2 rds 37%

What drove this

Carlos Petruzzella record 15-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Brothers of Life MMA (grade C)

Nick Galanti record 7-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: bjj-leaning; camp Dante Rivera BJJ (grade B)

Brandon Holmes vs Modestino Rodrigues

WK4 · Middleweight thin data

62%

ends early

Modestino Rodrigues 51.9%near coin-flip

KO/TKO 45%

Submission 17%

Decision 37%

Ends in R1 33% R2 18% R3 49% inside 2 rds 51%

What drove this

Brandon Holmes record 6-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp TNT Martial Arts & Fitness (grade U)

Modestino Rodrigues no documented method split — divisional prior; camp Revira Black Team (grade C)

Adam Livingston vs Hunter Smith

WK4 · Lightweight

50%

ends early

Hunter Smith 50.2%near coin-flip

KO/TKO 28%

Submission 21%

Decision 50%

Ends in R1 26% R2 14% R3 60% inside 2 rds 40%

What drove this

Adam Livingston record 7-1 (57% KO / 14% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Long Island MMA (grade B)

Hunter Smith record 8-1 (75% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Performance Evolution Training Center (grade C)

Liam McCraken vs Sylvestre Sanchez

WK4 · Lightweight

42%

ends early

Sylvestre Sanchez 50.0%near coin-flip

KO/TKO 29%

Submission 12%

Decision 57%

Ends in R1 21% R2 12% R3 67% inside 2 rds 33%

What drove this

Liam McCraken record 7-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Aspire Combat Sports Academy (grade C)

Sylvestre Sanchez record 8-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Llamas Brothers MMA (grade C)

Patrick Rivera vs Adam Darby

WK4 · Welterweight

43%

ends early

Patrick Rivera 49.7%near coin-flip

KO/TKO 36%

Submission 6%

Decision 56%

Ends in R1 20% R2 13% R3 66% inside 2 rds 34%

What drove this

Patrick Rivera record 13-4 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: bjj-leaning; camp Crazy 88 Jiu-Jitsu (grade B)

Adam Darby record 7-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: bjj-leaning; camp Team Ryano (grade B)

Colton Loud vs Frank da Silva Castro

WK5 · Flyweight

27%

ends early

Frank da Silva Castro 51.1%near coin-flip

KO/TKO 17%

Submission 10%

Decision 71%

Ends in R1 13% R2 8% R3 79% inside 2 rds 21%

What drove this

Colton Loud record 7-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: bjj-leaning; camp Genesis BJJ (grade U)

Frank da Silva Castro record 8-0 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Renovação Coari Team (grade U)

Martin Koźak vs Juan Andres Cabrera

WK5 · Middleweight

42%

ends early

Martin Koźak 49.7%near coin-flip

KO/TKO 29%

Submission 12%

Decision 57%

Ends in R1 21% R2 12% R3 67% inside 2 rds 33%

What drove this

Martin Koźak record 6-0 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Mattix MMA (grade U)

Juan Andres Cabrera record 10-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp La Base MMA (grade U)

Quentin Pasley vs Arlind Berisha

WK5 · Light Heavyweight

67%

ends early

Quentin Pasley 63.6%

KO/TKO 59%

Submission 7%

Decision 33%

Ends in R1 38% R2 18% R3 44% inside 2 rds 56%

What drove this

Quentin Pasley record 3-0 (100% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Fighting Arts Academy (grade C)

Arlind Berisha record 5-0 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Sarpsborg Chi Kickboxing & MMA (grade U)

Camila Reynoso vs Hailai Wushamo

WK6 · Women's Strawweight thin data

17%

ends early

Camila Reynoso 51.3%near coin-flip

KO/TKO 7%

Submission 10%

Decision 81%

Ends in R1 8% R2 5% R3 87% inside 2 rds 13%

What drove this

Camila Reynoso record 9-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Centro Deportivo ADM (grade U)

Hailai Wushamo no documented method split — divisional prior; camp Yi Fight Training Center (grade U)

Luis Hernandez vs Hugo Guillon

WK6 · Middleweight thin data

57%

ends early

Hugo Guillon 49.9%near coin-flip

KO/TKO 39%

Submission 18%

Decision 42%

Ends in R1 30% R2 16% R3 54% inside 2 rds 46%

What drove this

Luis Hernandez no documented method split — divisional prior; camp Freedom Fighters (grade U)

Hugo Guillon record 7-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Ghost Arena (grade U)

Mayton Perea vs Zevan Hunt

WK6 · Welterweight thin data

47%

ends early

Mayton Perea 50.5%near coin-flip

KO/TKO 37%

Submission 10%

Decision 52%

Ends in R1 24% R2 13% R3 62% inside 2 rds 38%

What drove this

Mayton Perea record 8-3 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp DC Team Machala (grade U)

Zevan Hunt no documented method split — divisional prior; camp American Elite MMA (grade U)

Tyshawn Williams vs Antônio Monteiro

WK6 · Featherweight

38%

ends early

Tyshawn Williams 49.6%near coin-flip

KO/TKO 29%

Submission 8%

Decision 61%

Ends in R1 18% R2 12% R3 70% inside 2 rds 30%

What drove this

Tyshawn Williams record 8-0 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Xtreme Couture (grade A)

Antônio Monteiro record 18-5 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Nova União (grade A)

Damian Piwowarczyk vs Emilio Quissua

WK7 · Light Heavyweight

51%

ends early

Damian Piwowarczyk 58.1%

KO/TKO 43%

Submission 8%

Decision 48%

Ends in R1 27% R2 14% R3 59% inside 2 rds 41%

What drove this

Damian Piwowarczyk record 11-4 (55% KO / 36% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Uniq Fight Club (grade C)

Emilio Quissua record 8-0 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Planet Eater (grade U)

Paris Moran vs Marcos Degli

WK7 · Flyweight

22%

ends early

Marcos Degli 50.4%near coin-flip

KO/TKO 14%

Submission 8%

Decision 76%

Ends in R1 11% R2 6% R3 83% inside 2 rds 17%

What drove this

Paris Moran record 14-3 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: bjj-leaning; camp Gracie Barra (US) (grade B)

Marcos Degli record 14-3 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Vale Top Team (grade U)

Piero Guaylupo vs Callum Connor

WK7 · Lightweight

42%

ends early

Callum Connor 49.6%near coin-flip

KO/TKO 29%

Submission 12%

Decision 57%

Ends in R1 21% R2 12% R3 67% inside 2 rds 33%

What drove this

Piero Guaylupo record 11-0 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Los Perros Sarnosos (grade C)

Callum Connor record 8-0 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Manchester Top Team (grade B)

Alvi Dasuyev vs Jaden Ortega

WK7 · Welterweight thin data

64%

ends early

Alvi Dasuyev 49.9%near coin-flip

KO/TKO 49%

Submission 14%

Decision 36%

Ends in R1 35% R2 18% R3 47% inside 2 rds 53%

What drove this

Alvi Dasuyev no documented method split — divisional prior; camp Deathrow MMA (grade U)

Jaden Ortega no documented method split — divisional prior; camp Sikjitsu (grade B)

Igor Cavalcanti vs Oscar Ravello

WK8 · Middleweight

45%

ends early

Oscar Ravello 49.7%near coin-flip

KO/TKO 33%

Submission 12%

Decision 54%

Ends in R1 23% R2 13% R3 64% inside 2 rds 36%

What drove this

Igor Cavalcanti record 13-2 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Infinity Fight Team (grade U)

Oscar Ravello record 13-3 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Sniper Gym (Peru) (grade U)

Ian Escuza vs Luca Borando

WK8 · Featherweight thin data

49%

ends early

Ian Escuza 50.1%near coin-flip

KO/TKO 36%

Submission 14%

Decision 50%

Ends in R1 25% R2 14% R3 61% inside 2 rds 39%

What drove this

Ian Escuza record 7-0 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Pitbull Martial Arts Center (grade B)

Luca Borando no documented method split — divisional prior; camp Aurora MMA (grade U)

Zaurbek Sabanov vs Adama Diop

WK8 · Heavyweight

60%

ends early

Zaurbek Sabanov 60.4%

KO/TKO 54%

Submission 5%

Decision 39%

Ends in R1 32% R2 17% R3 51% inside 2 rds 49%

What drove this

Zaurbek Sabanov record 5-0 (80% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: wrestle-leaning; camp Alania Fighting Team (grade B)

Adama Diop record 6-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: wrestle-leaning; camp Mantas MMA (grade U)

Ilias Bulaid vs Erick Visconde

WK8 · Featherweight thin data

50%

ends early

Ilias Bulaid 57.1%

KO/TKO 37%

Submission 13%

Decision 48%

Ends in R1 26% R2 15% R3 59% inside 2 rds 41%

What drove this

Ilias Bulaid record 9-0 (56% KO / 11% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp SB Gym (grade B)

Erick Visconde no documented method split — divisional prior; style read: strike-leaning; camp California MMA (grade U)

Roque Conceição Moreira Jr. vs Alexander Chavez

WK9 · Flyweight thin data

37%

ends early

Alexander Chavez 49.6%near coin-flip

KO/TKO 23%

Submission 14%

Decision 62%

Ends in R1 18% R2 11% R3 71% inside 2 rds 29%

What drove this

Roque Conceição Moreira Jr. no documented method split — divisional prior; camp Revira Black Team (grade C)

Alexander Chavez record 9-0 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Pitbull Martial Arts Center (grade B)

Ivan Gnizditskiy vs Nell Ariano

WK9 · Light Heavyweight

65%

ends early

Nell Ariano 57.1%

KO/TKO 59%

Submission 6%

Decision 34%

Ends in R1 36% R2 18% R3 46% inside 2 rds 54%

What drove this

Ivan Gnizditskiy record 7-0 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Chingi Tura (grade U)

Nell Ariano record 6-0 (67% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Platinum MMA Training Center (grade U)

Generated 2026-08-10T14:11:38+00:00 Record-quality board Round-1 KO board API