Our Monte Carlo engine, pointed at prospects who need a finish to get signed.
Read the method and round numbers first — that is where the research pays.
How this works, and what it can't tell you
The same engine that runs every UFC matchup on this site, with a Contender Series layer
on top. A finish gets you signed 86% of the time here against 54% for a decision. These
men chase it, and they chase it early: round one runs 28% hotter than the fight
math alone predicts. That urgency is fitted to 416 completed Contender Series bouts,
not assumed — as is the method mix of every division.
What it can't tell you is who wins, with much confidence. Regional prospects have no
per-fight statistics anywhere — we know what these men have done, not how they
did it — so neither corner has defensive data and the win split stays honest by staying
close. Where a fight is genuinely a coin-flip this page says so instead of inventing a
favourite.
