Dana White's Contender Series · Season 10
Contender Series Simulation
Our Monte Carlo engine, pointed at prospects who need a finish to get signed.
Read the method and round numbers first — that is where the research pays.
How this works, and what it can't tell you
The same engine that runs every UFC matchup on this site, with a Contender Series layer
on top. A finish gets you signed 86% of the time here against 54% for a decision. These
men chase it, and they chase it early: round one runs 28% hotter than the fight
math alone predicts. That urgency is fitted to 416 completed Contender Series bouts,
not assumed — as is the method mix of every division.
What it can't tell you is who wins, with much confidence. Regional prospects have no
per-fight statistics anywhere — we know what these men have done, not how they
did it — so neither corner has defensive data and the win split stays honest by staying
close. Where a fight is genuinely a coin-flip this page says so instead of inventing a
favourite.
5 bouts simulated
≈2.6 finishes expected
≈1.4 inside round one
dwcs-sim-0.1.0
Next card · Week 3
Bella Mir vs Alex Apodaca
WK3 · Women's Bantamweight
Alex Apodaca
52.0%near coin-flip
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
9%
Decision
73%
Ends in
R1 12%
R2 8%
R3 80%
inside 2 rds 20%
What drove this
Bella Mir record 4-0 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: wrestle-leaning; camp Syndicate MMA (grade A)
Alex Apodaca record 3-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: wrestle-leaning; camp FactoryX Muay Thai (grade A)
Sean Clancy Jr. vs Gary Balletto Jr.
WK3 · Welterweight
Sean Clancy Jr.
54.4%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
10%
Decision
42%
Ends in
R1 31%
R2 17%
R3 52%
inside 2 rds 48%
What drove this
Sean Clancy Jr. record 8-0 (50% KO / 38% sub of wins); camp Higher Level Martial Arts (grade B)
Gary Balletto Jr. record 11-3 (36% KO / 64% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Tri-Force MMA (grade B)
Alexis Miranda vs Ronald Humphrey
WK3 · Middleweight
Ronald Humphrey
60.7%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
12%
Decision
45%
Ends in
R1 28%
R2 15%
R3 56%
inside 2 rds 44%
What drove this
Alexis Miranda record 9-2 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Entram Gym (grade A)
Ronald Humphrey record 4-0 (100% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp American Top Team (Sandy Springs) (grade A)
Guilherme Uriel vs Mario Piazzon
WK3 · Heavyweight
Mario Piazzon
54.4%
KO/TKO
73%
Submission
6%
Decision
21%
Ends in
R1 45%
R2 22%
R3 33%
inside 2 rds 67%
What drove this
Guilherme Uriel record 7-2 (57% KO / 43% sub of wins); camp Evolution Combat MMA (grade U)
Mario Piazzon record 10-1 (70% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Galpão da Luta (grade U)
Carlos Petruzzella vs Nick Galanti
WK3 · Middleweight
Carlos Petruzzella
50.4%near coin-flip
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
12%
Decision
53%
Ends in
R1 23%
R2 14%
R3 63%
inside 2 rds 37%
What drove this
Carlos Petruzzella record 15-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Brothers of Life MMA (grade C)
Nick Galanti record 7-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: bjj-leaning; camp Dante Rivera BJJ (grade B)
