Dana White's Contender Series · Season 10
Contender Series Simulation
Our Monte Carlo engine, pointed at prospects who need a finish to get signed.
Read the method and round numbers first — that is where the research pays.
How this works, and what it can't tell you
The same engine that runs every UFC matchup on this site, with a Contender Series layer
on top. A finish gets you signed 86% of the time here against 54% for a decision. These
men chase it, and they chase it early: round one runs 28% hotter than the fight
math alone predicts. That urgency is fitted to 416 completed Contender Series bouts,
not assumed — as is the method mix of every division.
What it can't tell you is who wins, with much confidence. Regional prospects have no
per-fight statistics anywhere — we know what these men have done, not how they
did it — so neither corner has defensive data and the win split stays honest by staying
close. Where a fight is genuinely a coin-flip this page says so instead of inventing a
favourite.
4 bouts simulated
≈1.8 finishes expected
≈0.9 inside round one
1 thin-data
dwcs-sim-0.1.0
Next card · Week 7
Damian Piwowarczyk vs Emilio Quissua
WK7 · Light Heavyweight
Damian Piwowarczyk
58.1%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
8%
Decision
48%
Ends in
R1 27%
R2 14%
R3 59%
inside 2 rds 41%
What drove this
Damian Piwowarczyk record 11-4 (55% KO / 36% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Uniq Fight Club (grade C)
Emilio Quissua record 8-0 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Planet Eater (grade U)
Paris Moran vs Marcos Degli
WK7 · Flyweight
Marcos Degli
50.4%near coin-flip
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
8%
Decision
76%
Ends in
R1 11%
R2 6%
R3 83%
inside 2 rds 17%
What drove this
Paris Moran record 14-3 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: bjj-leaning; camp Gracie Barra (US) (grade B)
Marcos Degli record 14-3 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Vale Top Team (grade U)
Piero Guaylupo vs Callum Connor
WK7 · Lightweight
Callum Connor
49.6%near coin-flip
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
12%
Decision
57%
Ends in
R1 21%
R2 12%
R3 67%
inside 2 rds 33%
What drove this
Piero Guaylupo record 11-0 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Los Perros Sarnosos (grade C)
Callum Connor record 8-0 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Manchester Top Team (grade B)
Alvi Dasuyev vs Jaden Ortega
WK7 · Welterweight thin data
Alvi Dasuyev
49.9%near coin-flip
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
14%
Decision
36%
Ends in
R1 35%
R2 18%
R3 47%
inside 2 rds 53%
What drove this
Alvi Dasuyev no documented method split — divisional prior; camp Deathrow MMA (grade U)
Jaden Ortega no documented method split — divisional prior; camp Sikjitsu (grade B)
