Dana White's Contender Series · Season 10
Contender Series Simulation
Our Monte Carlo engine, pointed at prospects who need a finish to get signed.
Read the method and round numbers first — that is where the research pays.
How this works, and what it can't tell you
The same engine that runs every UFC matchup on this site, with a Contender Series layer
on top. A finish gets you signed 86% of the time here against 54% for a decision. These
men chase it, and they chase it early: round one runs 28% hotter than the fight
math alone predicts. That urgency is fitted to 416 completed Contender Series bouts,
not assumed — as is the method mix of every division.
What it can't tell you is who wins, with much confidence. Regional prospects have no
per-fight statistics anywhere — we know what these men have done, not how they
did it — so neither corner has defensive data and the win split stays honest by staying
close. Where a fight is genuinely a coin-flip this page says so instead of inventing a
favourite.
3 bouts simulated
≈1.4 finishes expected
≈0.7 inside round one
dwcs-sim-0.1.0
Next card · Week 5
Colton Loud vs Frank da Silva Castro
WK5 · Flyweight
Frank da Silva Castro
51.1%near coin-flip
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
10%
Decision
71%
Ends in
R1 13%
R2 8%
R3 79%
inside 2 rds 21%
What drove this
Colton Loud record 7-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: bjj-leaning; camp Genesis BJJ (grade U)
Frank da Silva Castro record 8-0 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Renovação Coari Team (grade U)
Martin Koźak vs Juan Andres Cabrera
WK5 · Middleweight
Martin Koźak
49.7%near coin-flip
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
12%
Decision
57%
Ends in
R1 21%
R2 12%
R3 67%
inside 2 rds 33%
What drove this
Martin Koźak record 6-0 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Mattix MMA (grade U)
Juan Andres Cabrera record 10-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp La Base MMA (grade U)
Quentin Pasley vs Arlind Berisha
WK5 · Light Heavyweight
Quentin Pasley
63.6%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
7%
Decision
33%
Ends in
R1 38%
R2 18%
R3 44%
inside 2 rds 56%
What drove this
Quentin Pasley record 3-0 (100% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Fighting Arts Academy (grade C)
Arlind Berisha record 5-0 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Sarpsborg Chi Kickboxing & MMA (grade U)
