Contender Series
460 bouts · 321 contracts charted
This week's picks5 fights
A finish gets you signed 86% of the time here; a decision only 54%. The fighters know it, and it shows: 61.8% of decided Contender Series bouts end early versus 49.4% of comparable UFC bouts, and 34.9% end inside round one versus 25.5%. Every bout below carries its own projection, driven mostly by weight class — the strongest signal we can measure without a documented record.
Strongest calls
Ranked by the model's own confidence.
Full-history numbers
Contracts by season
Season 10 week by week, then every season's class.
Champions who started here
Method
The data
Every Contender Series season, bout, and contract award is ingested from the Wikipedia API into the Bout Scout database and refreshed with the weekly agent. The Contender Series is a tier-1 promotion in our opponent-quality system — wins here translate.
The picks
Picks and confidence meters are pure model output from the Bout Scout engine — no odds are shown anywhere on this page until the odds feed for Contender Series cards goes live. A pick labeled STRONG cleared the model's own confidence bar; everything else stays off the board.
The finish call
Whether a bout ends early is a separate question from who wins, and on this show it has a different answer than anywhere else in the sport. The projection is driven mainly by weight class — the one signal we have on every bout — and nudged by a fighter's own record where one exists. When neither corner has documented tape, the number you see is the weight-class rate, and it says so.
The scoreboard
Every published pick is frozen when it's posted and graded in public after the card. When the model is wrong, the record says so.
Bout Scout model output is analysis and entertainment, not betting advice. No wagering is offered or endorsed here. If you bet, bet legally, responsibly, and never more than you can afford to lose.