DWCS
Season 10 · 2026A fight-by-fight tape read from 138 MMA, who covers every Contender Series bout individually — footwork, trigger conditions, whether a man can stand back up. Weighted 60% in the headline pick.
Root beer — no play
Week 1 · Lightweight
Abe Alsaghir vs Fabrizio Escarrega
138 MMA calls this a
coinflip — we don't bet it
COINFLIP
Our model: Abe Alsaghir
61.8% · LEAN
Tap for his reasoning›
coinflip — we don't bet it
Treat as no-play: he rates it a true coinflip decided in the opening seconds
explicitly '51-49', says a 100-fight rerun could split 50/50 and that he 'could be swayed'; decided by the first 10-60 seconds.
Abe Alsaghir — Deliberate pace-controller — actively slows fights down and fights patiently as a counter-striker, catching opponents on the way in. The finish count sits oddly against the measured style. Slightly the better grappler of the two: good cage push, strong top pressure, leg-lacing to deny the opponent his legs and stand-ups, and durable back control. The analyst flags that several of his bigger-name wins came against opponents well past their prime.
- several notable wins came against opponents past their prime, some in their 40s
- must survive an extremely fast start to impose his pace
- a slowed-down fight may not earn a contract even in victory
Fabrizio Escarrega — Explosive fast starter who fights as though on a clock — long straight punches from a lanky frame, heavy volume, and enough power that accumulation crumbles opponents quickly. Most of his wins come in round one and several inside a minute. Grappling is secondary but real: body-lock-and-trip takedowns that land at the END of striking flurries, then ground and pound rather than submission hunting. The one loss came via an in-fight arm injury stopping the bout, not a beating.
- willing to brawl, which gets riskier against better competition
- takedowns are functional rather than good
Root beer — no play
Week 1 · Featherweight
Ananias Mulumba vs Tom Pagliarulo
138 MMA calls this a
coinflip — we don't bet it
COINFLIP
Our model: Ananias Mulumba
53.8% · PASS
Tap for his reasoning›
coinflip — we don't bet it
Bet whoever opens as the underdog — his explicit instruction on this bout
calls this 'the toughest to predict' on the card and says he'd be happy taking either man; names Mulumba only as a final lean.
Ananias Mulumba — Pressure fighter with good volume and adequate power, plus a reliable leg kick. Notably the better top-side grappler in this matchup: good takedowns, a second-effort trip when the first attempt fails, adequate top pressure and a strong back take finished palm-to-palm rather than by sliding under the chin. His clearest liability is that his hands drop as his volume climbs, which is dangerous against a heavy hitter. The analyst rates this the hardest bout on the card to call and suggests siding with whoever is the underdog.
- hands drop when throwing volume — can get caught cold
- gives up substantial height and reach
- was finished at this exact level last season
Tom Pagliarulo — Very tall for featherweight, over six feet, and uses it. Kicks look unorthodox but land effectively; basic combinations behind good range control; quick one-two. The signature weapon is the knee — he pushes down on the opponent's head without fully clinching, then knees to body or head, and his height means raising the head does not escape it. Power is disproportionate to how shots land: opponents drop even off strikes that appear to graze. Grappling is the unknown — takedown defence looks good but has never been properly tested, and there may be a lingering submission-defence liability.
- gets backed up on the feet
- grappling largely unseen — takedown defence untested
- possible submission-defence liability that has not been probed in a long time
Agrees with our model
Week 1 · Heavyweight
Anthony Wint vs Matt Adams
138 MMA picks
Anthony Wint
STRONG
Our model: Anthony Wint
59.8% · WATCH
Tap for his reasoning›
Anthony Wint
says twice 'the prediction HAS TO BE Anthony Wint'; still calls it a good test for both.
Anthony Wint — Athlete-first heavyweight whose athleticism accelerates his skill growth despite being a specialist in nothing. Comes forward and starts quickly. Striking is basic but functional boxing combinations behind real power; the trigger is backing an opponent to the cage, at which point he unloads. Grappling is better than expected: powerful double leg, unusually fast level change for heavyweight, strong top pressure and ground-and-pound. Inexperience is the visible limit.
- lacks the footwork to win a striking match in open space
- only six pro fights — inexperience shows
Matt Adams — Longer-tenured martial artist than his opponent but the lesser athlete. Best path is range management — jab, circle off, extend the fight, which the analyst believes favours him the longer it lasts. Offensively the more varied grappler: strong cage push, good takedowns against the fence, adequate open-mat takedowns, good top pressure and ground and pound. The disqualifying flaw is defensive: in his most recent loss he was taken down easily and had no route back to his feet.
- taken down easily in his most recent loss with no answer to stand back up
- lacks the athleticism to match his opponent's explosiveness
- needs the fight to go long to win
NO PATH watch at 4:43
HAS TO BE watch at 5:16
HAS TO BE watch at 5:28
Agrees with our model
Week 1 · Flyweight
Bilal Hasan vs Mridul Saikia
138 MMA picks
Bilal Hasan
STRONG
Our model: Bilal Hasan
69.4% · LEAN
Tap for his reasoning›
Bilal Hasan
says Hasan wins 'very easily' and gets the highlight win 'very clearly'; calls Saikia 'undoubtedly a huge underdog'.
Bilal Hasan — The most complete fighter on the card by this analyst's read. Diverse kick arsenal to all levels with power amplified by accuracy — he places shots precisely rather than swinging. Works the body well, controls distance and range, and counters opponents coming in. Grappling is not the escape hatch it might appear: slick transitions, trips, and a back-take highlight that the analyst describes as barely believable. Good ground and pound too. Framed explicitly as a fighter the UFC wants a highlight win from.
- none identified in this breakdown
Mridul Saikia — Tall for flyweight at roughly 5'7" with a 5'9" reach, and uses the length well. Switches stance and throws a lead-hook-to-rear-straight combination effectively from either side, with decent kicks. The real asset is a submission arsenal built on long, slender arms — good triangles off his back and easy access under the chin for chokes. The analyst nonetheless expects a comfortable loss and treats him as a heavy underdog.
- expected to be heavily outmatched
- framed as the opponent in a showcase booking
VERY CLEARLY watch at 2:44
UNDOUBTEDLY watch at 2:56
VERY CLEARLY watch at 3:05
138 MMA conflict
Week 1 · Middleweight
Jonathan Kunneman vs Joseph Kropschot
138 MMA picks
Joseph Kropschot
STRONG
Our model: Jonathan Kunneman
77.1% · LEAN
Tap for his reasoning›
Joseph Kropschot
138 MMA takes Joseph Kropschot; the house lean is Jonathan Kunneman (77.1% · LEAN, via dwcs_picks). He grades his own read 'lean'.
picked to LOSE. Emphatic on the reason: his level of competition is 'pretty abysmal' and he withdrew every time a step up was booked.
Jonathan Kunneman — Wrestler who commits to his best skill immediately — shoots early and often, works a strong body lock, and if the first attempt fails goes straight to a trip on the second effort. Good top pressure once there. Striking exists mainly to set up the takedown: a decent overhand landing because opponents brace for the shot, but he loops his punches and nothing is technically clean. The analyst's central objection is competition: he has never faced a genuine step up, and has withdrawn every time one was scheduled — including a Contender Series booking last season. He will also be the smaller man here.
- never faced a real step up in competition; withdrew each time one was booked, including a prior Contender Series slot
- loops all his punches — nothing clean or technical
- will be the physically smaller fighter
- opponent is dangerous off his back, blunting the top game
Joseph Kropschot — Long, lanky and the superior jiu-jitsu player of the two. On the feet his tools are a rangy jab and a serviceable leg kick, but his striking defence is passive — he raises a high guard and waits for the opponent to finish a combination before responding, never interrupting, which eventually lets something through and drops him. That matters less than usual because he is genuinely dangerous off his back and willing to work from bottom, threatening sweeps and submissions. Strong back taker standing or on the mat, with the rear naked choke as his primary finisher. Carries real credibility as the reigning LFA champion.
- passive high-guard defence: waits for opponents to finish combinations and gets dropped
- striking offence limited to a rangy jab and a leg kick
- willingness to work from bottom is risky against a takedown-heavy opponent
BY FAR watch at 3:56
BY FAR watch at 4:26
Analysis by 138 MMA. Summaries here are our own paraphrase of his conclusions — watch the videos for his full reasoning.