Dana White's Contender Series · Season 10
Contender Series Simulation
Our Monte Carlo engine, pointed at prospects who need a finish to get signed.
Read the method and round numbers first — that is where the research pays.
How this works, and what it can't tell you
The same engine that runs every UFC matchup on this site, with a Contender Series layer
on top. A finish gets you signed 86% of the time here against 54% for a decision. These
men chase it, and they chase it early: round one runs 28% hotter than the fight
math alone predicts. That urgency is fitted to 416 completed Contender Series bouts,
not assumed — as is the method mix of every division.
What it can't tell you is who wins, with much confidence. Regional prospects have no
per-fight statistics anywhere — we know what these men have done, not how they
did it — so neither corner has defensive data and the win split stays honest by staying
close. Where a fight is genuinely a coin-flip this page says so instead of inventing a
favourite.
4 bouts simulated
≈2.0 finishes expected
≈1.0 inside round one
1 thin-data
dwcs-sim-0.1.0
Next card · Week 4
Brandon Holmes vs Modestino Rodrigues
WK4 · Middleweight thin data
Modestino Rodrigues
51.9%near coin-flip
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
17%
Decision
37%
Ends in
R1 33%
R2 18%
R3 49%
inside 2 rds 51%
What drove this
Brandon Holmes record 6-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp TNT Martial Arts & Fitness (grade U)
Modestino Rodrigues no documented method split — divisional prior; camp Revira Black Team (grade C)
Adam Livingston vs Hunter Smith
WK4 · Lightweight
Hunter Smith
50.2%near coin-flip
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
21%
Decision
50%
Ends in
R1 26%
R2 14%
R3 60%
inside 2 rds 40%
What drove this
Adam Livingston record 7-1 (57% KO / 14% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Long Island MMA (grade B)
Hunter Smith record 8-1 (75% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: strike-leaning; camp Performance Evolution Training Center (grade C)
Liam McCraken vs Sylvestre Sanchez
WK4 · Lightweight
Sylvestre Sanchez
50.0%near coin-flip
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
12%
Decision
57%
Ends in
R1 21%
R2 12%
R3 67%
inside 2 rds 33%
What drove this
Liam McCraken record 7-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Aspire Combat Sports Academy (grade C)
Sylvestre Sanchez record 8-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); camp Llamas Brothers MMA (grade C)
Patrick Rivera vs Adam Darby
WK4 · Welterweight
Patrick Rivera
49.7%near coin-flip
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
6%
Decision
56%
Ends in
R1 20%
R2 13%
R3 66%
inside 2 rds 34%
What drove this
Patrick Rivera record 13-4 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: bjj-leaning; camp Crazy 88 Jiu-Jitsu (grade B)
Adam Darby record 7-1 (0% KO / 0% sub of wins); style read: bjj-leaning; camp Team Ryano (grade B)
