The record

Stake rises with conviction — $100 / $200 / $500 / $1000 by tier · live since August 7, 2026
0–0Record · all tiers
—Win rate
—Units won
—Profit
—Return
6Live now
How to read this. Every call is graded like a real bet. A unit is $100, and how much we risk depends on how strongly we disagree with the bookmakers — $100 on a Tier 1 up to $1000 on a Tier 4. Units won is the profit in units; profit is the same number in dollars. Return is profit divided by everything we risked, so a big losing Tier 4 hurts it more than a small losing Tier 1 — which is the point. Figures below are the four tiers combined; the longshot board is tracked separately and never counted here.

By tier

Gap: our sim vs. de-vigged price

TIER 4

The swing · 43+ pt gap · $1,000 a bet
0–0Record
—Win rate
—Units
—Profit
—ROI
—CLV pts
0Live

No Tier 4 picks yet — by design. A 43-point gap is meant to be rare.

TIER 3

Strong play · 35+ pt gap · $500 a bet
0–0Record
—Win rate
—Units
—Profit
—ROI
—CLV pts
1Live

1 pick live, none settled yet.

TIER 2

Solid edge · 25+ pt gap · $200 a bet
0–0Record
—Win rate
—Units
—Profit
—ROI
—CLV pts
5Live

5 picks live, none settled yet.

TIER 1

Lean · 20+ pt gap · $100 a bet
0–0Record
—Win rate
—Units
—Profit
—ROI
—CLV pts
0Live

No Tier 1 picks yet

LONGSHOT

Live dog · under 30% our read
0–0Record
—Win rate
—Profit
—ROI
—CLV pts
0Live

Kept out of the tier record on purpose.

ROI = profit over money risked · CLV = our frozen price vs. the closing line (positive means we beat the close).

Live picks

6 frozen, waiting on a result
TierPickFightEvent Our %Market % GapPrice
TIER 3 Vicente Luque Vicente Luque vs Tresean Gore UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
August 15, 2026		 68.0% 43.9% 38.6 +124
draftkings
TIER 2 Alexia Thainara Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
August 8, 2026		 87.0% 69.8% 28.3 -244
betfair_ex_eu
TIER 2 Darren Elkins Darren Elkins vs Yadier del Valle UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
August 8, 2026		 46.1% 13.8% 28.2 +620
matchbook
TIER 2 Kauê Fernandes Jalin Turner vs Kauê Fernandes UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
August 15, 2026		 59.3% 43.0% 27.1 +135
betonlineag
TIER 2 Dustin Stoltzfus Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
August 15, 2026		 46.9% 18.8% 26.1 +425
hardrockbet
TIER 2 Yair Rodriguez Yair Rodriguez vs Jean Silva UFC Fight Night : Rodriguez vs Silva
September 12, 2026		 53.4% 25.2% 31.7 +280
betonlineag
Why the board starts at zero · engine backtest

86 early calls retired before settling.

On 5 August 2026 the simulator was recalibrated — it had been saying 85% where the real answer was closer to 72%. Ungraded picks made by the older engine were voided; no settled result was changed. The rule from here: once a fight has happened, the call stands.

No back-dated tier record — on purpose.

A tier needs the betting line it disagreed with. We started logging lines on 5 August 2026 and the odds feed doesn't sell the past, so the board starts at zero rather than inventing one.

What we can show: the simulator replayed over 8,223 real fights on information available before each one — 58.1% of winners overall, 60.6% from 2023 on. That's the engine, not a tier record.

Analysis and entertainment only. Nothing here is betting advice.