TJ O'Brien vs. Paul Kelly
Tale of the tape
The read
Level of competition
TJ O'Brien
Full career not yet synced for TJ O'Brien — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).
In the UFC: 0-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.0 wins over .500
Paul Kelly
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 5 | 4 |
| Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) | 1 | 0 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 9 | 1 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 1.09 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 12 finish wins over 20 documented bouts
In the UFC: 2-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.6 wins over .500
Striking
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
TJ O'Brien
Distance 93.1% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 2.3% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 4.6% (norm 8.0%)
Paul Kelly
Distance 56.9% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 9.6% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 33.5% (norm 8.0%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
TJ O'Brien
Head 68.5% (norm 78.2%) · Body 10.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 21.5% (norm 7.9%)
Paul Kelly
Head 88.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 6.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 4.2% (norm 7.9%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | O'Brien L/A | Acc | Lightweight med | Kelly L/A | Acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 56 / 121 | 46.3% | 37.9% | 112 / 487 | 23.0% | 37.9% |
| In the clinch | 0 / 3 | too few to rate | 67.3% | 46 / 82 | 56.1% | 67.3% |
| On the ground | 4 / 6 | too few to rate | 69.1% | 167 / 287 | 58.2% | 69.1% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 28 / 89 | 31.5% | 35.0% | 251 / 761 | 33.0% | 35.0% |
| To the body | 9 / 13 | too few to rate | 69.1% | 48 / 59 | 81.4% | 69.1% |
| To the legs | 23 / 28 | 82.1% | 81.9% | 26 / 36 | 72.2% | 81.9% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs O'Brien L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med | vs Kelly L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 40 / 132 | 30.3% | 38.9% | 168 / 482 | 34.9% | 38.9% |
| In the clinch | 2 / 2 | too few to rate | 68.6% | 35 / 63 | 55.6% | 68.6% |
| On the ground | 34 / 46 | 73.9% | 68.0% | 60 / 105 | 57.1% | 68.0% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 54 / 152 | 35.5% | 35.1% | 166 / 517 | 32.1% | 35.1% |
| To the body | 3 / 5 | too few to rate | 68.1% | 44 / 63 | 69.8% | 68.1% |
| To the legs | 19 / 23 | too few to rate | 81.5% | 53 / 70 | 75.7% | 81.5% |
Grappling
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Kelly has more cage time on record.