Thiago Alves vs. Curtis Millender

UFC 15-12-0 vs. 3-2-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
15-12-0
UFC record
3-2-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
42
AgeΔ 4 yrs
38
5'9"
HeightΔ 5"
6'2"
70"
ReachΔ 6"
76"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
80
Layoff (months)Δ 7.8 mo
87.8
LLWLL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Curtis Millender rarely shoots — 0.26 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Thiago Alves carries real power — 0.66 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.38 Welterweight norm.
Thiago Alves rarely shoots — 0.71 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Thiago Alves

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1412
Tier 3 — regional circuit 93

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.8 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 14 finish wins over 38 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-9 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.7 wins over .500

Curtis Millender

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 67
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 30
Tier 3 — regional circuit 136

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.41 · 9 tier-1/2 wins · 7 finish wins over 36 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.0 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

11063.73/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
2223.90/min · norm 3.17
10153.42/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
1702.99/min · norm 3.06
41.8%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
48.1%norm 44.9%
62.5%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
61.5%norm 55.25%
130.66/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
20.53/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Thiago Alves

Distance 84.1% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 7.9% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 8.0% (norm 8.1%)

Curtis Millender

Distance 95.5% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 2.8% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 1.7% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Thiago Alves

Head 73.8% (norm 78.2%) · Body 7.6% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 18.7% (norm 8.4%)

Curtis Millender

Head 71.4% (norm 78.2%) · Body 12.3% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 16.2% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Alves L/AAccWelterweight med Millender L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 867 / 2227 38.9% 38.6% 207 / 441 46.9% 38.6%
In the clinch 126 / 208 60.6% 67.8% 10 / 13 too few to rate 67.8%
On the ground 113 / 213 53.1% 67.2% 5 / 8 too few to rate 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 569 / 1953 29.1% 37.2% 132 / 330 40.0% 37.2%
To the body 150 / 200 75.0% 70.7% 32 / 57 56.1% 70.7%
To the legs 387 / 495 78.2% 82.9% 58 / 75 77.3% 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Alves L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Millender L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 731 / 2283 32.0% 39.0% 132 / 377 35.0% 39.0%
In the clinch 159 / 251 63.3% 68.9% 3 / 9 too few to rate 68.9%
On the ground 125 / 174 71.8% 68.0% 35 / 56 62.5% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 649 / 2203 29.5% 35.6% 104 / 338 30.8% 35.6%
To the body 218 / 312 69.9% 69.6% 19 / 39 48.7% 69.6%
To the legs 148 / 193 76.7% 82.1% 47 / 65 72.3% 82.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1460.9% acc · 0.71/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
1100.0% acc · 0.26/15 · norm 1.27
7763.1% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
952.9% def · norm 63.9%
30:5610.4% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
0:521.5% of cage time · norm 18.5%
76:113:51 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
18:104:47 per 15 · norm 3:15
60.30/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Alves has more cage time on record.