Rafael Natal vs. Kevin Casey
Tale of the tape
The read
Level of competition
Rafael Natal
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 9 | 7 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 12 | 2 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 0.83 · 9 tier-1/2 wins · 12 finish wins over 31 documented bouts
In the UFC: 3-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.7 wins over .500
Kevin Casey
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 1 | 4 |
| Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) | 3 | 0 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 5 | 2 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 0.27 · 4 tier-1/2 wins · 6 finish wins over 19 documented bouts
In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.0 wins over .500
Striking
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Rafael Natal
Distance 76.6% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 8.1% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 15.3% (norm 10.3%)
Kevin Casey
Distance 69.1% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 7.1% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 23.8% (norm 10.3%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Rafael Natal
Head 71.2% (norm 78.0%) · Body 12.5% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 16.3% (norm 8.4%)
Kevin Casey
Head 72.3% (norm 78.0%) · Body 17.0% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 10.6% (norm 8.4%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Natal L/A | Acc | Middleweight med | Casey L/A | Acc | Middleweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 432 / 1049 | 41.2% | 40.5% | 89 / 215 | 41.4% | 40.5% |
| In the clinch | 79 / 111 | 71.2% | 70.3% | 20 / 22 | too few to rate | 70.3% |
| On the ground | 145 / 210 | 69.0% | 69.1% | 61 / 74 | 82.4% | 69.1% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 379 / 976 | 38.8% | 38.9% | 103 / 225 | 45.8% | 38.9% |
| To the body | 93 / 171 | 54.4% | 71.7% | 38 / 53 | 71.7% | 71.7% |
| To the legs | 184 / 223 | 82.5% | 83.3% | 29 / 33 | 87.9% | 83.3% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Middleweight: 174 fighters · Middleweight: 174 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Natal L/A | Opp acc | Middleweight med | vs Casey L/A | Opp acc | Middleweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 369 / 1016 | 36.3% | 39.5% | 93 / 251 | 37.1% | 39.5% |
| In the clinch | 58 / 89 | 65.2% | 70.9% | 87 / 117 | 74.4% | 70.9% |
| On the ground | 97 / 131 | 74.0% | 69.0% | 56 / 90 | 62.2% | 69.0% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 315 / 950 | 33.2% | 37.9% | 133 / 337 | 39.5% | 37.9% |
| To the body | 73 / 117 | 62.4% | 71.3% | 76 / 93 | 81.7% | 71.3% |
| To the legs | 136 / 169 | 80.5% | 82.1% | 27 / 28 | 96.4% | 82.1% |
Grappling
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Natal has more cage time on record.