Patrick Cummins vs. Rafael Cavalcante
Tale of the tape
The read
Level of competition
Patrick Cummins
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 6 | 7 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 4 | 0 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 0.68 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 6 finish wins over 17 documented bouts
In the UFC: 1-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.0 wins over .500
Rafael Cavalcante
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 1 | 4 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 12 | 3 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 0.5 · 1 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 21 documented bouts
In the UFC: 0-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.2 wins over .500
Striking
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Patrick Cummins
Distance 61.5% (norm 80.5%) · Clinch 12.2% (norm 8.6%) · Ground 26.3% (norm 10.4%)
Rafael Cavalcante
Distance 80.1% (norm 80.5%) · Clinch 12.9% (norm 8.6%) · Ground 7.0% (norm 10.4%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Patrick Cummins
Head 88.4% (norm 79.2%) · Body 6.9% (norm 11.7%) · Legs 4.7% (norm 9.7%)
Rafael Cavalcante
Head 87.1% (norm 79.2%) · Body 5.9% (norm 11.7%) · Legs 7.0% (norm 9.7%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Cummins L/A | Acc | Light Heavyweight med | Cavalcante L/A | Acc | Light Heavyweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 224 / 603 | 37.1% | 41.4% | 56 / 149 | 37.6% | 41.4% |
| In the clinch | 85 / 120 | 70.8% | 70.9% | 16 / 24 | too few to rate | 70.9% |
| On the ground | 189 / 258 | 73.3% | 72.3% | 11 / 13 | too few to rate | 72.3% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 409 / 867 | 47.2% | 38.9% | 68 / 162 | 42.0% | 38.9% |
| To the body | 51 / 68 | 75.0% | 71.9% | 7 / 11 | too few to rate | 71.9% |
| To the legs | 38 / 46 | 82.6% | 81.8% | 8 / 13 | too few to rate | 81.8% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Light Heavyweight: 93 fighters · Light Heavyweight: 93 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Cummins L/A | Opp acc | Light Heavyweight med | vs Cavalcante L/A | Opp acc | Light Heavyweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 281 / 739 | 38.0% | 40.4% | 92 / 233 | 39.5% | 40.4% |
| In the clinch | 57 / 82 | 69.5% | 68.7% | 27 / 38 | 71.1% | 68.7% |
| On the ground | 53 / 65 | 81.5% | 70.4% | 80 / 108 | 74.1% | 70.4% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 326 / 798 | 40.9% | 37.5% | 131 / 292 | 44.9% | 37.5% |
| To the body | 45 / 61 | 73.8% | 72.3% | 32 / 47 | 68.1% | 72.3% |
| To the legs | 20 / 27 | 74.1% | 83.0% | 36 / 40 | 90.0% | 83.0% |
Grappling
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Cummins has more cage time on record.