Kevin Burns vs. Roan Carneiro

UFC 2-3-0 vs. 4-5-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
2-3-0
UFC record
4-5-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
46
AgeΔ 2 yrs
48
5'10"
HeightΔ 1"
5'11"
74"
ReachΔ 2"
76"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
199.8
Layoff (months)Δ 86 mo
113.8
LLLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLWL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Roan Carneiro is a submission threat — 1.54 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.45 Welterweight norm.
Roan Carneiro hunts takedowns — 3.08 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Kevin Burns is a submission threat — 0.85 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.45 Welterweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Kevin Burns

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 23
Tier 3 — regional circuit 104

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.5 · 2 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 19 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.4 wins over .500

Roan Carneiro

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 45
Tier 3 — regional circuit 148

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.29 · 4 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 31 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.7 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1452.74/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
1331.51/min · norm 3.17
2274.30/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
1471.67/min · norm 3.06
38.9%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
48.0%norm 44.9%
52.6%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
65.3%norm 55.25%
20.57/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Kevin Burns

Distance 84.7% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 9.9% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 5.4% (norm 8.1%)

Roan Carneiro

Distance 60.6% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 11.2% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 28.2% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Kevin Burns

Head 75.3% (norm 78.2%) · Body 9.9% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 14.7% (norm 8.4%)

Roan Carneiro

Head 85.2% (norm 78.2%) · Body 8.7% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 6.1% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Burns L/AAccWelterweight med Carneiro L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 108 / 316 34.2% 38.6% 61 / 168 36.3% 38.6%
In the clinch 24 / 37 64.9% 67.8% 25 / 31 80.6% 67.8%
On the ground 13 / 20 too few to rate 67.2% 47 / 78 60.3% 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 73 / 281 26.0% 37.2% 98 / 236 41.5% 37.2%
To the body 28 / 37 75.7% 70.7% 18 / 24 too few to rate 70.7%
To the legs 44 / 55 80.0% 82.9% 17 / 17 too few to rate 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Burns L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Carneiro L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 165 / 372 44.4% 39.0% 61 / 267 22.8% 39.0%
In the clinch 29 / 38 76.3% 68.9% 24 / 35 68.6% 68.9%
On the ground 33 / 69 47.8% 68.0% 62 / 122 50.8% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 127 / 358 35.5% 35.6% 89 / 342 26.0% 35.6%
To the body 69 / 86 80.2% 69.6% 33 / 50 66.0% 69.6%
To the legs 31 / 35 88.6% 82.1% 25 / 32 78.1% 82.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
150.0% acc · 0.28/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
1847.4% acc · 3.08/15 · norm 1.27
1047.6% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
583.3% def · norm 63.9%
2:124.2% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
38:0043.3% of cage time · norm 18.5%
24:006:48 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
21:153:37 per 15 · norm 3:15
30.85/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
91.54/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Carneiro has more cage time on record.